As the Philippines awaits official results from its high-stakes midterm elections, one of the most dramatic developments is the stunning lead of former President Rodrigo Duterte in the Davao City mayoral race, despite his ongoing detention in The Hague, where he faces charges of crimes against humanity.
The elections, held on Monday, May 12, 2025, involved over 68 million registered voters and more than 18,000 national and local positions. The event has been described by analysts as a critical juncture in Philippine politics, potentially determining the future of the powerful Duterte family and reshaping the 2028 presidential race.
Detained but Dominant: Duterte’s Surprising Candidacy
Rodrigo Duterte, currently in the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC), has been charged in connection with thousands of extrajudicial killings that occurred during his bloody anti-drug campaign while in office from 2016 to 2022. He was arrested in March 2025 and remains in The Hague awaiting trial.
Despite his detention, Duterte is legally permitted to run for public office under Philippine law, as candidates are disqualified only upon final conviction. As of a partial and unofficial count representing 62% of the vote, Duterte had received over 500,000 votes — dwarfing his closest opponent’s 60,000 — and appears poised to reclaim his former seat as mayor of Davao City, a role he held for more than 20 years prior to his presidency.
The real-world implications of Duterte governing from abroad — or behind bars — remain unclear. His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, has indicated that if elected, her brother Sebastian Duterte, currently the city’s mayor and now running for vice mayor, will serve as acting mayor in Rodrigo Duterte’s stead.
The Stakes: Duterte Family Political Dynasty on the Line
Beyond Rodrigo Duterte’s personal comeback bid, the 2025 midterm elections have become a de facto referendum on the Duterte family’s political future.
Vice President Sara Duterte, once aligned with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., is facing an impeachment trial in July. She stands accused of orchestrating an assassination plot against President Marcos and misusing intelligence funds. Sara has denied the allegations, labeling them politically motivated attacks meant to derail her rising political career.
If convicted by the Senate, Sara would be removed from office and barred from future public service — a crushing blow to her presumed 2028 presidential ambitions. To avoid conviction, she will need the support of at least nine out of 24 senators, many of whom were elected in Monday’s vote.
Political analyst Maria Ela Atienza of the University of the Philippines emphasized the importance of this election cycle, saying, “The 2025 midterm elections will be crucial because the results will set the pace for what will happen next — which family or faction will dominate the elections in 2028.”
Other Duterte family members also have political irons in the fire:
- Sebastian Duterte (vice mayor candidate) is leading the polls.
- Paolo Duterte, the former president’s eldest son, is seeking reelection as a representative.
- Two of Rodrigo Duterte’s grandsons are running for local office.
The family’s sweeping participation in the elections reflects both their enduring regional clout in Mindanao and their intent to maintain national influence.
Cracks in the Marcos-Duterte Alliance
The elections unfolded amid a deepening rift between the Duterte and Marcos camps. Though once running mates and allies, their political ambitions and disagreements have led to a sharp and public falling out.
President Marcos voted in Batac City in the north, while Sara Duterte cast her vote in Davao, where she addressed the media, stating she would respect the people’s choice regardless of the outcome.
Marcos, in a video message on election eve, urged citizens to vote, emphasizing the power of civic participation during this transitional period.
Election Day Marred by Violence and Voter Complaints
While the electoral process proceeded smoothly in most parts of the country, some areas witnessed disturbing violence:
- Silay City saw two people killed and seven wounded in a shooting incident.
- New Corella Municipality experienced a deadly gunfight between rival mayoral candidate supporters, leaving two dead.
- In Basilan province, at least seven people were killed in suspected election-related attacks.
Elsewhere, reports emerged of missing voter names in precincts, technical delays, and long queues under oppressive heat. Despite frustrations, Filipinos remained determined to cast their votes.
“I think what is at stake in this election is the future of the next generation,” said Diana Joy Acosta, a first-time mother voting in Mandaluyong City. “I hope for an end to corruption and leaders with integrity.”
Another voter, Reymark Marquez, said he had lost faith in both Marcos and Duterte but believed the midterms were an opportunity to elect honest leadership.
What’s Next: A Nation Waits, A Family in Limbo
The official results of the midterm election are expected within the week. Until then, Filipinos — and the world — will watch closely to see whether the Duterte family maintains its grip on power or faces a sharp decline following Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC trial and Sara Duterte’s looming impeachment.
The path forward is uncertain. Will political dynasties continue to dominate the Philippine landscape, or will voters deliver a message demanding accountability and change?
What is clear: the decisions made in this midterm election will reverberate far beyond 2025, possibly shaping the direction of Philippine governance for years to come.
User Intent Answer: Why Does This Election Matter?
This election matters because it:
- It will determine the future political influence of the Duterte family.
- Could decide whether Sara Duterte is removed from the vice presidency.
- It will impact the balance of power heading into the 2028 presidential race.
- Reflects growing tensions between major political factions, especially Duterte vs. Marcos.
- Tests the strength of democratic institutions amid controversies involving criminal charges, impeachment, and electoral violence.
The Bottom Line:
The 2025 midterms are not just about filling seats — they are about defining the future of political power in the Philippines.
